Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial.

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

Genomic insights of evolutionary divergence and life history innovations in Antarctic brittle stars.

Understanding the drivers of evolutionary innovation provides a crucial perspective of how evolutionary processes unfold across taxa and ecological systems. It has been hypothesised that the Southern Ocean provided ecological opportunities for novelty in the past. However, the drivers of innovation are challenging to pinpoint as the evolutionary genetics of Southern Ocean fauna are influenced by Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles, oceanic currents and species ecology. Here we examined the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of the Southern Ocean brittle stars Ophionotus victoriae (five arms, broadcaster) and O. hexactis (six arms, brooder). We found that O. victoriae and O. hexactis are closely-related species with interspecific gene flow. During the late Pleistocene, O. victoriae likely persisted in a connected deep water refugium and in situ refugia on the Antarctic continental shelf and around Antarctic islands; O. hexactis persisted exclusively within in situ island refugia. Within O. victoriae, contemporary gene flow linking to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, regional gyres and other local oceanographic regimes was observed. Gene flow connecting West and East Antarctic islands near the Polar Front was also detected in O. hexactis. A strong association was detected between outlier loci and salinity in O. hexactis. Both O. victoriae and O. hexactis are associated with genome-wide increase in alleles at intermediate-frequencies; the alleles associated with this peak appear to be species specific, and these intermediate-frequency variants are far more excessive in O. hexactis. We hypothesise that the peak in alleles at intermediate frequencies could be related to adaptation in the recent past, linked to evolutionary innovations of increase in arm number and a switch to brooding from broadcasting, in O. hexactis.

Emerging biological archives can reveal ecological and climatic change in Antarctica.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing observable changes in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean including increased air and ocean temperatures, glacial melt leading to sea-level rise and a reduction in salinity, and changes to freshwater water availability on land. These changes impact local Antarctic ecosystems and the Earth's climate system. The Antarctic has experienced significant past environmental change, including cycles of glaciation over the Quaternary Period (the past ~2.6 million years). Understanding Antarctica's paleoecosystems, and the corresponding paleoenvironments and climates that have shaped them, provides insight into present day ecosystem change, and importantly, helps constrain model projections of future change. Biological archives such as extant moss beds and peat profiles, biological proxies in lake and marine sediments, vertebrate animal colonies, and extant terrestrial and benthic marine invertebrates, complement other Antarctic paleoclimate archives by recording the nature and rate of past ecological change, the paleoenvironmental drivers of that change, and constrain current ecosystem and climate models. These archives provide invaluable information about terrestrial ice-free areas, a key location for Antarctic biodiversity, and the continental margin which is important for understanding ice sheet dynamics. Recent significant advances in analytical techniques (e.g., genomics, biogeochemical analyses) have led to new applications and greater power in elucidating the environmental records contained within biological archives. Paleoecological and paleoclimate discoveries derived from biological archives, and integration with existing data from other paleoclimate data sources, will significantly expand our understanding of past, present, and future ecological change, alongside climate change, in a unique, globally significant region.

Is the Southern Ocean ecosystem primed for change or at the cliff edge?

The Southern Ocean is experiencing unprecedented environmental risks and consequences from current climate change. It is unclear how the benthic fauna, which has largely evolved in isolation, will respond to future changes. Knowing how the benthic fauna persisted through repeated extreme glacial-interglacial cycles in the past provides a unique opportunity to inform future predictions. Right now, understanding and preserving current genetic diversity and connectivity between populations will give species the best chance to adapt.

Evolutionary innovations in Antarctic brittle stars linked to glacial refugia.

The drivers behind evolutionary innovations such as contrasting life histories and morphological change are central questions of evolutionary biology. However, the environmental and ecological contexts linked to evolutionary innovations are generally unclear. During the Pleistocene glacial cycles, grounded ice sheets expanded across the Southern Ocean continental shelf. Limited ice-free areas remained, and fauna were isolated from other refugial populations. Survival in Southern Ocean refugia could present opportunities for ecological adaptation and evolutionary innovation. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeographic patterns of circum-Antarctic brittle stars Ophionotus victoriae and O. hexactis with contrasting life histories (broadcasting vs brooding) and morphology (5 vs 6 arms). We examined the evolutionary relationship between the two species using cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) data. COI data suggested that O. victoriae is a single species (rather than a species complex) and is closely related to O. hexactis (a separate species). Since their recent divergence in the mid-Pleistocene, O. victoriae and O. hexactis likely persisted differently throughout glacial maxima, in deep-sea and Antarctic island refugia, respectively. Genetic connectivity, within and between the Antarctic continental shelf and islands, was also observed and could be linked to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and local oceanographic regimes. Signatures of a probable seascape corridor linking connectivity between the Scotia Sea and Prydz Bay are also highlighted. We suggest that survival in Antarctic island refugia was associated with increase in arm number and a switch from broadcast spawning to brooding in O. hexactis, and propose that it could be linked to environmental changes (such as salinity) associated with intensified interglacial-glacial cycles.